ANALYSIS: With second recession, troubles of Nigeria’s polity will worsen

The annual routine maintenance of mechanical and electrical installations in the Presidential Villa is to cost N4.8 billion while refreshment and foodstuff is to gulp N389.8 million. The demand for computers and software have not abated. These should not be the priorities of a cash and revenue strapped economy, which recorded revenue inflow of N2.552 trillion between January and August 2020 and spent N2.137trillion in debt servicing leaving a balance of N385billion. With a deficit of 5.196 trillion and N4.2 trillion in new borrowing, the 2021 budget continues the trajectory.

WHEN the news of Nigeria’s slide into recession broke last week, the first impulse of most analysts was to examine the extent of the hardships Nigerians would be forced to endure.

It would be recalled that in its overview of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) made it clear that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a growth rate of -3.62% (year-on-year) in real terms.

According to the statistics agency, cumulatively, the Nigerian economy contracted by -2.48 percent. “While this represents an improvement of 2.48 percent points over the –6.10 percent growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter (Q2 2020), it also indicates that two consecutive quarters of negative growth have been recorded in 2020.” Several experts have noted that the fall in GDP for two consecutive quarters are clear pointers to the serious decline in trade and economic activities caused by the effects of COVID-19, and the corresponding drop in the global demand for crude oil.

While economists have been trying to come to terms with the economic consequences of the contraction in the Nigerian economy, close watchers of the polity have been talking about the implications of the recession on the polity. With the #EndSARS protests adding a dimension of citizens restiveness to the overall picture of economic decline, experts are envisaging fundamental changes in the character of politics.

On the political front therefore, there are indications that the recessionary period would force a rethinking of the existence context as citizens demand far-reaching reforms to the existing governance templates.

As things stand, citizens have been groaning over the difficulties imposed by the country’s slide into a second recession in five years.

The first apparent political fallout of the economy’s slide into a second recessionary period in five years is the narrative battle between the major partisan political actors, who in a sense managed the economy to the point of experiencing two recessions in five years. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have been engaged in blame games and catfights over whose policies, actions or inactions were responsible for the recession.

For instance, the PDP, and its Presidential candidate in the 2019 general elections, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have been quick to mine political capital out of the reality of the recession. The two parties have however not proffered solutions in terms of how to get out of the crisis. It was a similar case of blame-gaming in 2016 when Nigeria slipped into its worst recession in decades.

The APC at the time, had just won a historic mandate in 2015. The party was quick to blame the previous administration of Goodluck Jonathan for the recession. The APC talking point at the time was that the 2016 recession was caused by the mindless looting of the economy by the previous administration.

In their talking points, APC leaders also made specific reference to corruption in defense spending involving USD 2.1billion, which it claimed ended up in private pockets. The APC argument at the time was that if the money had gone into the actual purpose it was meant for, it would have created a basis for the Nigerian armed forces to end the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East.

However, with the recession of 2020, the APC leaders will not have any predecessors to blame for what many analysts have referred to as their poor management of the economy. The current ruling party will have to live with the political consequences of the current overwhelming views that it has mismanaged the nation and the economy to a point where hyperinflation, high level of youth unemployment and the general restiveness of the population have become the norm.

Subsequently, there is a nexus between the recession and the poor response of the government to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The steps taken in response to both the effects of the pandemic and what will be done in the period of the recession are political decisions. In the case of the distribution of palliatives, politicians are believed to have hijacked and skewed the process, resulting in the exclusion of millions of citizens. The result was later seen in how Nigerians besieged warehouses to take their own share of palliatives items. It is also important to note that the recessionary period was preceded by a period of harsh fiscal decisions by the government at federal and state level. The multiple hikes in the pump price of petrol, and electricity tariffs were a major source of restiveness as citizens kicked against the level of hardships they were being subjected to.

In other climes where the electoral process is used to hold leaders accountable, the anger of citizens would have found expression in terms of voting out leaders, who have not meet people’s expectations. The experience in Nigeria however indicates that situations, which accentuate poverty such as the recession and the pandemic tend to alienate the people from the electoral process. Recent elections which were conducted at a time the country was experiencing severe economic constraints imposed by the pandemic were characterised with anomalies such as vote buying and voter apathy.

Nonetheless, the reality of the recession has reinforced the work of active citizens demanding transparency and accountability in governance. Notwithstanding the hard economic times which the country is faced with, government at federal, state and local government level continue to manage public finances with no regards for the principles of efficiency, accountability and value for money. A ready example is the proposed 2021 federal budget, which according to the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) contains a plethora of frivolous, inappropriate, unclear and wasteful estimates. According to the Lead Director of the CSJ, Eze Onyekpere, the 2021 budget contains a undue renovation and furnishing of housing running into tens of billions.

He said: “The annual routine maintenance of mechanical and electrical installations in the Presidential Villa is to cost N4.8 billion while refreshment and foodstuff is to gulp N389.8 million. The demand for computers and software have not abated. These should not be the priorities of a cash and revenue strapped economy, which recorded revenue inflow of N2.552 trillion between January and August 2020 and spent N2.137trillion in debt servicing leaving a balance of N385billion. With a deficit of 5.196 trillion and N4.2 trillion in new borrowing, the 2021 budget continues the trajectory.