THE World Bank’s latest economic update has said double-digit food inflation in the Middle East and North Africa has added pressure on poorer households and the impact of food insecurity can span generations.
The report titled “Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa,” forecasts MENA’s GDP will slow to 3.0% in 2023, from 5.8% in 2022.
Oil exporters, who benefited from a windfall in 2022, the report said, will experience slower growth.
“Food price inflation is having a devastating impact on poor families. The long-term implications of food insecurity will be felt for generations and sadly limit prospects for many, many young people,” said Ferid Belhaj, World Bank Vice President for the MENA region.
“The human and economic cost of inaction is immense and bold policies are needed in a region where young people make up more than half of the population,” he added.
The report noted that: “Inflation in the region rose dramatically in 2022, especially in countries that experienced currency depreciations. The report focused specifically on the impact of food price inflation on food insecurity, finding that eight out of 16 countries suffered from double-digit food price inflation or higher, affecting poorer households the most as they spend more of their budgets on food than those that are better off.
“The twice-yearly report found that average year-on-year food inflation across 16 MENA economies between March and December 2022 was 29%. This was higher than headline inflation, which rose on average to 19.4% year-on-year during that period, compared to 14.8% between October 2021 and February 2022, the month of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Across all four MENA subgroups covered in the report — developing oil importers, developing oil exporters, conflict countries and the GCC — inflation accounts for 24% to 33% of 2023’s forecasted food insecurity.”
Roberta Gatti, World Bank Chief Economist for the MENA region, observed that: “The report estimates that close to one out of five people living in developing countries in MENA is likely to be food insecure this year and that almost 8 million children under 5 years of age are among those who will be hungry. Food price inflation, even if it is temporary, can cause long-term and often irreversible damage,” said .
According to the report, the increase in food prices from March-June 2022, may have increased the risk of childhood stunting by 17%-24% in developing countries in MENA, which translates to about 200,000 to 285,000 newborns who are at risk of stunting. More generally, research shows that child malnutrition leads to poor performance in school, lower incomes and poorer health.
“The research offers clear evidence that inadequate nutrition in utero and early childhood has the potential to disrupt the destinies of children, setting them on paths to limited prosperity,” added Gatti.
