2020: A year like no other

TO MANY Nigerians from all walks of life, the out-going year, 2020, could pass for the most unusual in decades. It all began on the cusp of a coronavirus epidemic which started ravaging the human race in Wuhan, China from November 2019. By the following year, the virus had covered most parts of the world and the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared it a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The spread and attack of the virus continued rapidly throughout the world with devastating consequences. The first case of the virus was identified in Nigeria on February 27 through a traveller who came in from Italy.

By April 2020, the pandemic had killed a lot of people across the world, leading to a global lockdown that took a heavy toll on the world’s economy. By the time the infection curve was reasonably flattened, the economy of a number of countries have taken a dive and headed into recession. Nigeria was not exempted. So, 2020 can best be described as a turbulent year across the world.

Worst hit sectors included tourism, hospitality, entertainment and sports. They experienced harsh bashing following restrictions, bans as well as complete closures and postponement of events and activities across the globe. The aviation industry also suffered severe setback as flights were grounded across the world for almost one half of the year. The effect on the agriculture sector will start manifesting in the new year as a combined effect of several factors have kept most farmers off the field for a greater part of the year.

On the other hand, the telecoms sector received a boost as the global lockdown opened the telecom superhighway for communication traffic for both formal and informal engagements. The creative service, information technology and consumer goods sectors also benefited from the period, just as the restrictions did not seriously affect the food and drugs sector. Improved telecommunications services and applications also helped the banking sector even though it was also affected by the lockdown. Manufacturers of anti-retroviral and related drugs and consumables smiled to the banks during the period.

Yet, the year was notorious for the magnitude of insecurity that bedevilled the country. Thousands of Nigerians have been killed and kidnapped across the country by gun-wielding persons of various descriptions. The same tapestry of events – war, poverty, hunger and disease – resonates across sub-Saharan Africa. Also, given the fact that the widespread insecurity did not allow for normal farming activities in the year, the fear of famine in the country next year looms. Unfortunately, areas not affected by insurgency or banditry are not making any visible attempt to bridge the gap, a situation that is likely to open the country again to large-scale food importation next year.

2020 was tempestuous as it posed a peculiar challenge to Nigerians and the government. While the country received some good news in the re-emergence of a Nigerian, Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina, as President of the African Development Bank Group (AfDB) and certification of the country as polio-free in August, the story was not so palatable in other aspects of our national endeavours.

At this time, we are confronted with the second wave of the pandemic with increased cases, hospitalisations and deaths prompting new restrictions. Besides the ravages visited on the economy by the combined attack of insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic, which are still raging, the monoculture economy – which is almost entirely dependent on proceeds from oil sale – also suffered serious setback due largely to reduced production levels and price volatility in the global crude oil market.

Despite Nigeria’s huge borrowing from its creditors and revenues raked in through the oil sales, royalty from gas sales, customs and excise duties, taxes and other sundry revenue sources including recovery from Abacha loot, the country was still struggling to finance its budget in 2020. The unstable situation in the international crude oil market meant that Nigerians at home had to live with fluctuating prices of petroleum products, including the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).

The emerging picture of economic performance during the year did not look good. The Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month of December stood at 49.6 index points, indicating a contraction from the expansionary level recorded in the month of November 2020. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s PMI for December released last week Thursday, of the 14 surveyed sub-sectors, four sub-sectors reported expansion (above 50 per cent threshold) in the reviewed month. It showed that the following sub-sectors remained the same: transportation equipment, non-metallic mineral products, paper products, and food, beverage tobacco products, textile, apparel, leather and footwear. 

The remaining nine sub-sectors reported contractions in the following order: primary metal, petroleum and coal products, cement, electrical equipment, fabricated metal products, printing and related support activities, plastic and rubber products, chemicals and pharmaceutical products and furniture and related products.

A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; 50 points indicates no change and below points indicates that it is generally contracting. The Nigerian economy really took a downturn in 2020. But we must take responsibility for not doing our best to make positive impact on the economy. Rather than blame the year, we must blame ourselves. 

It is therefore not surprising that the economy has again relapsed into a recession, the second in five years. The state of the economy, coupled with the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has restricted a number of activities over some period of time, has made life difficult for many Nigerians. Cost of foodstuff is on the upward swing arising from an inflationary trend while transportation fares from one point to the other have become expensive and, in some cases, unaffordable.

2020 was also the year of protests. In the United States of America, there were spontaneous protests led by the Black Lives Matter Movement against police brutality and racial injustice. In Nigeria, we witnessed #EndSARS protests against police brutality. The year will also be remembered as that of unusual strike actions. Prominent were those in the health and education sectors. The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) embarked on a nationwide strike which lasted for nine months this year, a development which disrupted the academic calendar of public universities across the country. Although it has been called off, the long strike forced students to stay at home for longer than necessary thereby compounding the challenges parents go through in running their families.

The menace of insurgency which was on the downward trend in previous years gathered new steam during the year, a situation which was further aggravated by internal violent crimes and transnational banditry. This heightened the state of insecurity across the country and increased the fear of a worsening economy in the coming year.

The outgoing year was harsh and tough, and government must buckle up to ensure that the coming year is better. The indicators as at now do not look exciting but the situation can change dramatically if government is more strategic in handling issues of insecurity. The sub regional governments also have a responsibility of engendering micro-economic activities within their respective jurisdictions to boost economic activities at that level and save their citizens from hunger and strife.

Every citizen of this country, particularly the traditional rulers and those at the grassroots, have a responsibility towards tackling petty and violent crimes in their communities and assisting security agencies by exposing criminal elements within their midst. Fighting the insecurity scourge should be a collective responsibility, even if government has a constitutional mandate to protect lives and property.

The coming year, from all indications, will also be tough but if we co-operate and work together devoid of the usual sentiments that divide us, we can make 2021 a happy, fabulous and prosperous year.

We wish all our readers a happy new year in advance.